Utilizing machine learning for predictive analysis of emission levels to ensure compliance in refinery operations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14419/6x85gr51Keywords:
Machine Learning; Predictive Emission; Refinery Operation; Regulatory ComplianceAbstract
This study explores the use of Machine learning (ML) to predict emission levels in refinery operations to support regulatory compliance. Refineries produce a large amount of pollution like CO₂, SOₓ, NOₓ, VOCs, and PM that cause environmental degradation and public health concerns. Manual sampling and inspections are siusingmply not real-time and hence at risk for noncompliance. With the advent of ML-based predictive analytics, we can analyze large datasets, predict emission levels, and come up with preventive measures.
When the ML models were applied to the emission prediction, they were found to have certain limitations like the quality of data, computational burden, model interpretability, and data privacy. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and ensembles of Random Forest and XGBoost. It recommends the integration of ML with traditional monitoring, improvement of data quality, a guarantee of data privacy, and fostering of interdisciplinary collaboration. ML application can be optimized with these strategies, practices can be driven towards sustainability, and compliance can be strengthened in refinery operations.
References
- F.M. Adebiyi, Air quality and management in petroleum refining industry: A review, Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology 4 (2022) 89–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enceco.2022.02.001.
- A. Bello, F. Magi, O. Abaneme, U. Achumba, A. Obalalu, M. Fakeyede, Using Business Analysis to Enhance Sustainability and Environmental Com-pliance in Oil and Gas: A Strategic Framework for Reducing Carbon Footprint, JETIA 10(50) (2024) 76–85. https://doi.org/10.5935/jetia.v10i50.1303.
- Manisalidis, E. Stavropoulou, A. Stavropoulos, E. Bezirtzoglou, Environmental and health impacts of air pollution: A review, Frontiers in Public Health 8 (2020) Article 14. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00014.
- A. Gouldson, A. Carpenter, S. Afionis, Environmental leadership? Comparing regulatory outcomes and industrial performance in the United States and the European Union, Journal of Cleaner Production 100 (2015) 278–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.03.080.
- R.A. Tavella, F.M.R. da Silva Júnior, M.A. Santos, S.G.E.K. Miraglia, R.D. Pereira Filho, A review of air pollution from petroleum refining and petro-chemical industrial complexes: Sources, key pollutants, health impacts, and challenges, ChemEngineering 9(1) (2025) Article 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/chemengineering9010013.
- A. Ragothaman, W.A. Anderson, Air quality impacts of petroleum refining and petrochemical industries, Environments 4(3) (2017) Article 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments4030066.
- M.R. Hasan, M.Z. Islam, M.F.I. Sumon, M. Osiujjaman, P. Debnath, L. Pant, Integrating artificial intelligence and predictive analytics in supply chain management to minimize carbon footprint and enhance business growth in the USA, Journal of Business and Management Studies 6(4) (2024) 195–212. https://doi.org/10.32996/jbms.2024.6.4.17.
- J.L. Calderon, C. Sorensen, J. Lemery, C.F. Workman, H. Linstadt, M.D. Bazilian, Managing upstream oil and gas emissions: A public health-oriented approach, Journal of Environmental Management 310 (2022) 114766. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114766.
- A.H. Al-Moubaraki, I.B. Obot, Corrosion challenges in petroleum refinery operations: Sources, mechanisms, mitigation, and future outlook, Journal of Saudi Chemical Society 25(12) (2021) 101370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jscs.2021.101370.
- A. Audu, A. Umana, The role of environmental compliance in oil and gas production: A critical assessment of pollution control strategies in the Nigeri-an petrochemical industry, International Journal of Scientific Research Updates 8(2) (2024) 36–47. https://doi.org/10.53430/ijsru.2024.8.2.0061.
- Bell, C., Ilonze, C., Duggan, A., & Zimmerle, D. (2023). Performance of continuous emission monitoring solutions under a single-blind controlled test-ing protocol. Environmental Science & Technology, 57(14). https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c09235.
- Bello, A. A., Fakeyede, N. M., Gold, O., Eshun, N. V., Akibor, J., & Owusu, N. F. (2025). Optimizing agile collaboration frameworks for carbon-efficient digital twin deployment in oil and gas: Strategies, tools, and challenges in the planning phase. Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Advances, 22(2), 034–045. https://doi.org/10.30574/gjeta.2025.22.2.0025.
- Dechezleprêtre, A., & Sato, M. (2017). The impacts of environmental regulations on competitiveness. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 11(2), 183–206. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rex013.
- Samola, M. (2025). ML-based predictive analytics: Enhancing data-driven strategies in various industries. Cyber and Education Research. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/389546808_ML-Based_Predictive_Analytics_Enhancing_Data-Driven_Strategies_in_Various_Industries.
- Olawade, D. B., Wada, O. Z., Ige, A. O., Egbewole, B. I., Olojo, A., & Oladapo, B. I. (2024). Artificial intelligence in environmental monitoring: Ad-vancements, challenges, and future directions. Hygiene and Environmental Health Advances, 12, 100114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heha.2024.100114.
- Li, X., Shen, X., Jiang, W., Xi, Y., & Li, S. (2024). Comprehensive review of emerging contaminants: Detection technologies, environmental impact, and management strategies. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 278, 116420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2024.116420.
- Davis, F. D. (1989). Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of information technology. MIS Quarterly, 13(3), 319–340. https://doi.org/10.2307/249008.
- Musa, H. G., Fatmawati, I., Nuryakin, N., & Suyanto, M. (2024). Marketing research trends using technology acceptance model (TAM): A comprehen-sive review of researches (2002–2022). Cogent Business & Management, 11(1), Article 2329375. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2329375.
- Mandinach, E., Honey, M., & Light, D. (2006). A theoretical framework for data-driven decision making. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252996939_A_Theoretical_Framework_for_Data-Driven_Decision_Making.
- Elragal, A., & Elgendy, N. (2024). A data-driven decision-making readiness assessment model: The case of a Swedish food manufacturer. Decision Analytics Journal, 10, 100405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2024.100405.
- Dodman, S. L., Swalwell, K., DeMulder, E. K., View, J. L., & Stribling, S. M. (2021). Critical data-driven decision making: A conceptual model of data use for equity. Teaching and Teacher Education, 99, 103272 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tate.2020.103272.
- Kumari, S., & Singh, S. K. (2023). Machine learning-based time series models for effective CO₂ emission prediction in India. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(116), 116601–116616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21723-8.
- Bharathi, V. P. N., Muthuswamy, K., Natarajan, B., Sheela, M. S., Jothiprakash, G., Shanmugam, K., Loganathan, K., Vasudevan, B., Appavu, S., Marimuthu, R., Rajaram, D., & Ranjan, S. (2025). A comparative analysis and prediction of carbon emission in India using machine learning models. Global NEST Journal, 27(4), 06020.
- Zhang, T., He, W., Zheng, H., Cui, Y., Song, H., & Fu, S. (2021) Satellite-based ground PM₂.₅ estimation using a gradient boosting decision tree. Chemosphere, 268, 128801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.128801.
- Ali, M., Mukarram, M. M. T., Chowdhury, M. A., Karin, S., & Faruq, A. N. (2021). Integration & implication of machine learning: Barriers to aid envi-ronmental monitoring & management. Open Access Library Journal, 8(6). https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1107468.
- Aniceto, K. (2025). The role of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the oil and gas industry. Journal of Technology and Systems, 7(1), 6–27. https://doi.org/10.47941/jts.2493.
Downloads
How to Cite
Received date: March 23, 2025
Accepted date: April 14, 2025
Published date: May 17, 2025