Analysis of The Relationship between Oil Revenues and Bank Credit in Iraq
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14419/rpdd9y10Keywords:
Oil Revenues; Bank Credit; Iraqi Economy; Oil Price Volatility; Credit ExpansionAbstract
Oil constitutes the primary source of public revenue in Iraq, accounting for more than 90% of total government income. This heavy reliance on oil renders the Iraqi economy highly susceptible to fluctuations in global oil markets. Such dependence has had adverse effects on vari-ous economic sectors, particularly the banking sector, which plays a critical role in supporting economic activity and providing necessary financing.
This study aims to examine the impact of oil revenue fluctuations on bank credit in Iraq during the period 2004–2023. The research analyzes the relationship between oil revenues and credit activity through a three-part structure: the first section discusses the concept and volatility of oil revenues; the second explores the nature and significance of bank credit; and the third analyzes the relationship between oil revenues and bank credit in the Iraqi context.
References
- Abd al-Ridha, Nabil Jaafar. Oil Economy. First Edition, Dar Revival of Arab Heritage, Beirut, 2011.
- Al-Anbaki, Abdul Hussein Mohammed. Economic Reform in Iraq: A Theory of the Feasibility of Transitioning to a Market Economy. First Edition, Iraq Center for Studies, Baghdad, 2008.
- Al-Bassam, Siham Hussein, Shihab, Samira Fawzi. The Risks and Problems of Low Oil Prices in the Preparation of the General Budget of Iraq the Necessity of Activating Non-Oil Sources of Income, An Analytical Study. Journal of Baghdad College of Economics, University of Economics, Is-sue 36, 2013.
- Al-Douri, Mohamed Ahmed. Lectures in Petroleum Economics. Diwan of University Publications, Algeria, 1983.
- Al-Dulaimi, Taher Kazem Jawad and Al-Dulaimi, Ali Ahmed Daraj. The Impact of Changes in Crude Oil Prices on the Public Budget in the King-dom of Saudi Arabia for the Period (1990-2015). Anbar University Journal for Economic and Administrative Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 21, 2018.
- Al-Najjar, Yahya Ghani and Shalash, Amal. Economic Development. First Edition, Dar Al-Kutub for Printing and Publishing, University of Mosul, 1991.
- Alotaibi, A., Alshammari, T., & Alotaibi, S. (2022). Oil Price Volatility and Banking Sector Stability in Oil-Dependent Economies: Evidence from the GCC. International Journal of Financial Studies, 10(1), 25.
- Al-Saadi, Sabri Zayer. The Economic Experience in Modern Iraq. Dar Al-Mada for Culture and Publishing, First Edition, 2009.
- Al-Samarrai, Zakaria and Al-Douri, Yousra. Central Banks and Monetary Policies. First Edition, Al-Yazouri Scientific House for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, 2006.
- Al-Sammak, Muhammad Azhar. Petroleum Economics. Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, First Edition, Mosul University Press, 1980.
- Al-Shammari, Dr. Hashem Marzouk and Hamid, Ammar Mahmoud. The Future of Oil Demand in the Shadow of Competing Alternative Sources. Journal of the Faculty of Administration and Economics for Economic, Administrative and Financial Studies, University of Babylon, Vol.1, 2009.
- Alodayni, S. Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters. International Journal of Finan-cial Studies, 2016, 4:23. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs4040023.
- Ali, Ahmed Buraihi. Oil Economy and Oil Investment in Iraq. First Edition, Bayt Al-Hikma Publishing, Baghdad, 2011.
- Ali, Ahmed Ibrahimi. Banking, Credit and Financial Depth between Iraq and International Experience, Central Bank of Iraq, Department of Statis-tics, and Research, Journal of Monetary and Financial Studies, Third Issue, Baghdad, 2008.
- Al-Tohmeh, Haider Hussein. Public Budget and Growth Oil Economies, Al-Furat Center for Development and Strategic Studies, 2017.
- Carlstrom, C. T, & Fuerst, T. S. (2006). Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1945-1958. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0090.
- Driss Meftih. The Role of Petroleum Revenue in Achieving Sustainable Development, Resource Control Fund in Algeria as a Model, Unpublished Master's Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Economics, Management and Commercial Sciences, University of Kasdi Merbah, Ouargla, Algeria, 2003.
- Ehouman, Y.A. (2021). Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters: Evidence using a Copula Ap-proach. International Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.08.003.
- Greta Keliuotyte. Fiscal sustainability and its impact on financial stability in Lithuania and other new member states of the European Union. Ekonomika, vol. 94 (2), 2015. http.s://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2015.2.8231
- Hassan, M. K., & Ismail, A. (2021). Oil Price Fluctuations and Bank Credit Risk in MENA Oil Exporting Countries. Energy Economics, 97, 105196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105196.
- Hussein Abdul Razzaq Hamad, Muhaimid, Hamoud Saad. Analysis of the Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on the Foreign Trade of the OAPEC Countries for the Period (2000-2016) Iraq as a Model. Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Volume 3, Issue 43, 2018.
- IMF. (2023). Digitalization and Banking Sector Resilience in the Middle East. IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers No. 2023/012. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2023/04/12/Digitalization-and-Banking-Resilience-MENA.
- Ibrahim Abdulhamid Ismail. The Consequences of Investment Trends in the Economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, Center for Ar-ab Unity Studies, First Edition, 2004.
- Kanaan, Ali. Money, Banking and Monetary Policy. Dar Al-Manhal Al-Duo, First Edition, Beirut, 2012.
- Mabro, Robert. The peak oil theory, Oxford Energy Comment, 2006.
- Mahdi, Haider Kazim. Low Oil Prices and the Necessary Measures to Reduce Their Impact on the Public Budget in Iraq. Al-Muthanna Journal for Administrative and Economic Sciences, Volume 5, Issue 21, 2015. https://doi.org/10.52113/6/2015-5-1/1-55.
- Mohammed Hazem Abbas. Following the Fluctuations of Oil Revenues on the Effects of the Iraqi Economy for the Period 2016-2023. Iraqi Jour-nal of Economic Sciences, Issue, 83, 2024.
- Mudumbai, Raghuraman. On recent trends in crude oil prices, 2005.
- Othman, Mohammed Daoud. Credit Management and Analysis, Amman, First Edition, 2013.
- S.J.H. Shahzad et al. (2017). Directional and bidirectional causality between US industry credit and stock markets and their determinants. International Review of Economics & Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.10.005
- Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA). (2023). Financial Stability Report 2023. Riyadh: SAMA. Available at: https://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/EconomicReports/Pages/FinancialStability.aspx.
- Saeed Talal. Feasibility Studies and Project Evaluation, Publishing and Distribution House, Cairo, Egypt, 2003.
- Shaka, Haider Shalab. Oil Revenues in Iraq and the Possibility of Using it in Economic Diversification, Master's Thesis, Faculty of Administration and Economics, Al-Mustansiriya University, Economic Sciences, 2015.
- Stephen L. Calvin. Economics, McGraw-Hill Linger education, 8th Ed, 2008.
- Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. N. Yoshino, M. M. H. Abdi, and R. Farboudmanesh. (2016). The Response of Macro Variables of Emerging and Developed Oil Importers to Oil Price Movements. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 21 (1): 91-102. https://doi.org/10.1080/13547860.2015.1057955.
- Wang, Y. et al. (2013). Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Journal of Comparative Economics. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2189575.
- World Bank. (2023). Financial Sector Development in Resource-Rich Countries: Policy Challenges and Opportunities. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialsector/publication/resource-rich-c.
Downloads
How to Cite
Received date: July 26, 2025
Accepted date: August 1, 2025
Published date: August 14, 2025